 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
 |
||
| World running out
of petroleum? I REALLY don't think so! A few weeks ago, we published some information relating to world petroleum supply. We concluded that the doom-and-gloomers had been wrong for far more years than we originally thought. In a special report published in June 2004, ExxonMobil, who should know, said "estimates of the total oil and gas resource base have increased as a result of access to new areas and technology." The USGS Survey "World Petroleum Assessment 2000," estimated conventional recoverable liquids resource bases at about 3 trillion barrels of oil. Note, historical estimates below topped out at 1 trillion barrels of oil in 2000. The total amount of oil produced since production started in the 1800s is about 1 trillion barrels. But that's not all. The ExxonMobil report also noted there are significant unconventional resources including extra-heavy oil, oil sands and other resources that amount to more than 4.3 trillion barrels of unconventional oil resources. Estimates for Canada and Venezuela alone are estimated at 580 billion barrels. Oil companies take a long range view as they search for additional supplies to fill our increasing demands for energy, so ExxonMobil is constantly assessing possibilities for other energy sources, including biomass and municpal waste. Here is what they say about biomass: "One potential option for alternative fuel is the production of ethanol from corn or other crops. ...[that would require] substantial land that would otherwise be available for food, forests or other use." Here is the amount of land they estimate would be required to supply corn ethanol: "If you wanted to supply 10% of US gasoline in 2020, it would require 3% of the area of the U.S. If you wanted to supply 33% of the US gasoline in 2020, it would require 11% of the area of the U.S. If you wanted to supply all US gasoline in 2020, it would require 33% of the area of the U.S." Yet, today, cropland makes up only 19% of all the land in the U.S. As we know, huge amounts of land are consumed by national, state, county and city parks, monuments, wildlands, forests and highways, etc. Cities, towns and suburbs are consuming more and more land for residences, retail and industrial businesses, as well. So, there's not much room left for ag. And corn doesn't grow that well on hills, further reducing the amount of land left. Ethanol also costs consumers more than gasoline does, unless it is subsidized, and it requires substantial inputs of fossil fuels for both the production of the crops and the conversion into fuel. Obvious points, but they need to be made, since wishful thinking appears to be driving U.S. farm policy on the subject at this time. In spite of these well-known facts, some futurists claim the world will run out of oil in the very near future and propose use of biofuels. They cite M. King Hubbert, from Website: http://www.hubbertpeak.com, who predicted that USA oil production would peak around 1970. That didn't happen, so in 1974, he predicted that world petroleum output would peak around 1995. Now, they claim that world petroleum output will peak during the first decade of the 21st century and decline rapidly thereafter. Pessimists never give up, do they? World Oil Reserves estimates have changed over the years, but they always err on the low side. Here are a few items from the Hubbertpeak Web site: •• 1857 -- Romania produced 2,000 barrels of oil, marking
the beginning of the modern oil industry.
another interesting site: |
 |
 |
|
6/14/04
|
